# Research Papers — 2026-05 · bundle page 202 of 326 > Full-text markdown of papers #10051–10100 of 16266 published in 2026-05, newest first. AI-readable mirrors of the full 16266-paper 2026-05 archive (50 papers per file). Canonical page: https://aipod.dev/papers/archive/2026-05/page/202 [← Previous bundle](https://aipod.dev/papers/archive/2026-05/page/201.md) [Next bundle →](https://aipod.dev/papers/archive/2026-05/page/203.md) ### Ready from Day 1: Population-Aware Coordination for Large-Scale Constrained Multi-Agent Systems Authors: Angel Wang, Dominique Perrault-Joncas, Alvaro Maggiar, Carson Eisenach, Dean Foster Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.MA, cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13900v2 In large-scale multi-agent systems with shared resource constraints, an upstream planner must iteratively evaluate candidate resource plans -- assessing feasibility, aggregate response, and marginal cost -- before committing to one. Lagrangian relaxation separates local decisions through a broadcast cost signal, but the planner still needs the cost-to-utilization response map to explore plan space, and this map depends on population composition that changes across planning cycles. We propose \emph{population-aware coordination interfaces}: learned primal and dual maps, conditioned on compact population summaries, that the planner queries inside its iterative loop. The primal map predicts aggregate utilization under a proposed cost trajectory; the dual map predicts the cost trajectory for a target plan. By encoding response-relevant population structure, these maps remain reliable across evolving populations without per-cycle retraining, and support coordination of large populations from compact subsamples. We additionally cast Sim2Real transfer as a backtestable procedure, enabling evaluation before deployment. In a supply-chain capacity-control case study, population-aware interfaces reduce forecast error by 16--19\% and capacity violations by 20--51\% relative to population-unaware baselines under composition shift; 20K-agent cohorts support accurate coordination of 500K-agent populations; and simulator-trained primal maps achieve 11.1\% MAPE on real observations versus 13--24\% for baselines. --- ### Attention-Based Multimodal Survival Prediction with Cross-Modal Bilinear Fusion Authors: Hassan Keshvarikhojasteh, Josien P. W. Pluim, Mitko Veta Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: q-bio.QM, cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13897v1 We propose a novel multimodal deep learning framework for patient-level survival prediction, which integrates whole-slide histology features, RNA-seq expression profiles, and clinical variables. Our architecture combines an ABMIL module~\cite{ilse2018attention} for slide-level representation with feedforward encoders for RNA and clinical data. These embeddings are then integrated through low-rank bilinear cross-modal fusion~\cite{liu2018efficient} to model conditional interactions across modalities while controlling parameter growth. The model outputs continuous risk scores that are subsequently mapped to survival times using a nonparametric calibration procedure based on the Kaplan--Meier estimator~\cite{kaplan1958nonparametric}. By decomposing multimodal reasoning into independent pairwise interactions, the proposed fusion design promotes structural interpretability and parameter efficiency compared with full tensor and hierarchical fusion strategies. Experiments on the CHIMERA challenge dataset demonstrate improved predictive performance over concatenation-based baselines and competitive generalization on hidden evaluation cohorts. These results indicate that the proposed framework is a promising approach for multimodal survival prediction in HR-NMIBC. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/hassancpu/ChimeraChallenge2025_Task_3. --- ### Phylogenetic Tree Inference with Tropical Axial Attention Authors: Chris Teska, Kurt Pasque, Ruriko Yoshida, Baran Hashemi Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: q-bio.PE, cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13894v2 In this work, we introduce a Tropical Axial Attention neural reasoning architecture that replaces vanilla softmax dot-product attention with max-plus operators, inducing a piecewise-linear structure aligned with dynamic programming formulations. From multi-species sequence alignments, our model learns all possible pairwise distances and is trained using a combination of $\ell_1$ and tropical symmetric distance metric losses with an ultrametric violation penalty. We leverage the well known isomorphic relationship between the space of all phylogenetic trees with $n$ species and tropical Grassmannian to show that tropical attention provides a natural geometric framework for phylogenetic inference. On empirical $DS1-DS11$ alignments, where true trees are unknown, the tropical model achieves the lowest MAE to its FastME-induced tree metric on every dataset, with a MAE reductions averaging 81.5% relative to Phyloformer and 98.4% relative than Phyloformer 2. These results suggest that tropical attention is a useful geometric inductive bias for neural phylogenetic inference, especially under distribution shift and when tree-metric consistency is important. --- ### Physics-Grounded Adversarial Stain Augmentation with Calibrated Coverage Guarantees Authors: Mingi Hong Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: eess.IV, cs.CV, cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13889v1 Stain variation across hospitals degrades histopathology models at deployment. Existing augmentation methods perturb color spaces with arbitrary hyperparameters, lacking both a principled budget and coverage guarantees for unseen centers. We propose \textbf{C}alibrated \textbf{A}dversarial \textbf{S}tain \textbf{A}ugmentation (\textbf{CASA}), which performs adversarial augmentation in the Macenko stain parameter space with a budget calibrated from multi-center statistics via the DKW inequality. On Camelyon17-WILDS (5 seeds), CASA achieves $93.9\% \pm 1.6\%$ slide-level accuracy -- outperforming HED-strong ($88.4\% \pm 7.3\%$), RandStainNA ($85.2\% \pm 6.7\%$), and ERM ($63.9\% \pm 11.3\%$) -- with the highest worst-group accuracy ($84.9\% \pm 0.9\%$) among all 10 compared methods. --- ### Breaking Global Self-Attention Bottlenecks in Transformer-based Spiking Neural Networks with Local Structure-Aware Self-Attention Authors: Lingdong Li, Hangming Zhang, Qiang Yu Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.NE, cs.AI arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13887v1 Transformer-based Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) integrate SNNs with global self-attention and have demonstrated impressive performance. However, existing Transformer-based SNNs suffer from two fundamental limitations. First, they typically employ max pooling layers to reduce the size of feature maps, but the max pooling captures only the strongest response and fails to comprehensively preserve representative regional features. Second, the global self-attention involves all global feature interactions, resulting in computational redundancy and quadratic computational complexity, thus conflicting with the sparse and energy-efficient characteristics of SNNs. To address these challenges, we develop Local Structure-Aware Spiking Transformer (LSFormer), a novel Transformer-based Spiking Neural Network that incorporates Spiking Response Pooling (SPooling) and Local Structure-Aware Spiking Self-Attention (LS-SSA). For the first time, our LSFormer leverages a local dilated window mechanism to capture both local details and long-range dependencies. Experimental results demonstrate that our LSFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to existing advanced Transformer-based SNNs. Notably, on the more challenging static dataset Tiny-ImageNet and neuromorphic dataset N-CALTECH101, LSFormer substantially outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by 4.3\% and 8.6\% in top-1 classification accuracy, respectively. These results highlight the potential of LSFormer to advance energy-efficient spiking models toward practical deployment in large-scale vision applications. --- ### Digital Twins as Synthetic Controls in Single-Arm Trials Authors: Daniele Bertolini, Franklin Fuller, Aaron M. Smith, Jonathan R. Walsh, Run Zhuang Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: stat.AP, cs.LG, stat.ML arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12832v1 Single-arm trials are an important study design for evaluating drug efficacy and safety without enrolling patients into a control arm. Although they do not provide the gold-standard evidence of randomized controlled trials, they are increasingly used in clinical development as they offer an efficient, ethical, and practical alternative. A wide variety of approaches can be used to construct control comparators and estimate treatment effects, from fixed comparators informed by clinical knowledge to data-based and model-based patient-level comparators, also known as synthetic controls. Powerful and flexible machine learning models can allow outcome-model-based synthetic controls to overcome key limitations of direct data-based approaches, yield more robust estimates of treatment effects, and provide a principled way to incorporate corrections or encode additional assumptions when external data are not directly comparable. In this work, we argue that outcome-model-based synthetic control arms are an important tool for single-arm trials. We focus on digital twins, personalized predictions of disease progression generated from machine learning models trained on historical datasets, which naturally leverage these flexible approaches. We review doubly robust estimators, present power and sample size formulas, and discuss trade-offs in selecting historical data for training and analysis. We also outline practical considerations for deploying digital twins within the framework of recent FDA draft guidance on the use of artificial intelligence in drug development. Finally, we reanalyze data from trials in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Huntington's disease to demonstrate the proposed methods. --- ### Quantifying Potential Observation Missingness in Inverse Reinforcement Learning Authors: Leo Benac, Abhishek Sharma, Alihan Huyuk, Finale Doshi-Velez Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12831v1 Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL), which infers reward functions from demonstrations, is a valuable tool for modeling and understanding decision-making behavior. Many variants of IRL have been developed to capture complexities of human decision-making, such as subjective beliefs, imperfect planning, and dynamic goals. However, an often-overlooked issue in real-world behavioral datasets is that the recorded data may be missing observations that were available to the original decision-maker. In use-inspired settings such as healthcare, this can make expert actions appear suboptimal, even when they were near-optimal given the information available at the time. As a result, the rewards learned by standard IRL may be misleading. In this paper, we identify the minimal perturbations to the recorded observations needed for the expert's actions to appear optimal. We develop a practical algorithm for this problem and demonstrate its utility for quantifying the possible extent of missing observations in behavioral datasets through extensive experiments on synthetic navigation tasks, a cancer treatment simulator, and ICU treatment data. --- ### GraphIP-Bench: How Hard Is It to Steal a Graph Neural Network, and Can We Stop It? Authors: Kaixiang Zhao, Bolin Shen, Yuyang Dai, Shayok Chakraborty, Yushun Dong Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.CR, cs.AI, cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12827v2 Graph neural networks (GNNs) deployed as cloud services can be stolen through model-extraction attacks, which train a surrogate from query responses to reproduce the target's behavior, and a growing line of ownership defenses tries to prevent or trace such theft. This paper asks two questions: how hard is it to steal a GNN, and can we stop it? Prior work cannot answer either, because experiments use inconsistent datasets, threat models, and metrics. We introduce GraphIP-Bench, a unified benchmark that evaluates both sides under a single black-box protocol. GraphIP-Bench integrates twelve extraction attacks, twelve defenses spanning watermarking, output perturbation, and query-pattern detection, ten public graphs covering homophilic, heterophilic, and large-scale regimes, three GNN backbones, and three graph-learning tasks. It reports fidelity, task utility, ownership verification, and computational cost on shared splits, queries, and budgets. We further add a joint attack-and-defense track that runs every attack on every defended target and measures watermark verification on the resulting surrogate, exposing how much protection a defense retains after extraction. The empirical picture is clear: stealing a GNN is easy at medium query budgets and most defenses do not change this; several watermarks verify reliably on the protected model but lose most of their verification signal on the extracted surrogate, exposing a gap that single-model evaluations miss; and heterophilic graphs are systematically harder to steal, while a cross-architecture mismatch between target and surrogate reduces but does not prevent extraction. We release GraphIP-Bench with reproducible scripts and configurations, and integrate the attacks and defenses into the PyGIP library. Code: https://github.com/LabRAI/GraphIP-Bench. Library: https://labrai.github.io/PyGIP/index.html. --- ### FRAME: Forensic Routing and Adaptive Multi-path Evidence Fusion for Image Manipulation Detection Authors: Kaixiang Zhao, Tianrun Yu, Aoxu Zhang, Junhao Su, Porter Jenkins, Amanda Hughes Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.CV, cs.AI arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12826v1 The proliferation of sophisticated image editing tools and generative artificial intelligence models has made verifying the authenticity of digital images increasingly challenging, with important implications for journalism, forensic analysis, and public trust. Although numerous forensic algorithms, ranging from handcrafted methods to deep learning-based detectors, have been developed for manipulation detection, individual methods often suffer from limited robustness, fragmented evidence, or weak generalization across manipulation types and image conditions. To address these limitations, we present \textbf{FRAME}, a method for \textbf{F}orensic \textbf{R}outing and \textbf{A}daptive \textbf{M}ulti-path \textbf{E}vidence fusion for image manipulation detection. FRAME organizes diverse forensic algorithms into a multi-path analysis space, adaptively selects informative forensic paths for each input image, and fuses complementary evidence to improve detection and localization performance. By moving beyond single-method analysis and fixed fusion strategies, FRAME provides a more robust and flexible approach to image forensic reasoning while preserving interpretable forensic cues from multiple evidence sources. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of FRAME across diverse manipulation scenarios. Code is available at \href{https://github.com/kzhao5/FRAME}{https://github.com/kzhao5/FRAME}. --- ### Orthrus: Memory-Efficient Parallel Token Generation via Dual-View Diffusion Authors: Chien Van Nguyen, Chaitra Hegde, Van Cuong Pham, Ryan A. Rossi, Franck Dernoncourt, Thien Huu Nguyen Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, cs.AI arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12825v2 We introduce Orthrus, a simple and efficient dual-architecture framework that unifies the exact generation fidelity of autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) with the high-speed parallel token generation of diffusion models. The sequential nature of standard autoregressive decoding represents a fundamental bottleneck for high-throughput inference. While diffusion language models attempt to break this barrier via parallel generation, they suffer from significant performance degradation, high training costs, and a lack of rigorous convergence guarantees. Orthrus resolves this dichotomy natively. Designed to seamlessly integrate into existing Transformers, the framework augments a frozen LLM with a lightweight, trainable module to create a parallel diffusion view alongside the standard autoregressive view. In this unified system, both views attend to the exact same high-fidelity Key-Value (KV) cache; the autoregressive head executes context pre-filling to construct accurate KV representations, while the diffusion head executes parallel generation. By employing an exact consensus mechanism between the two views, Orthrus guarantees lossless inference, delivering up to a 7.8x speedup with only an O(1) memory cache overhead and minimal parameter additions. --- ### Mechanism Plausibility in Generative Agent-Based Modeling Authors: Patrick Zhao, David Huu Pham, Nicholas Vincent Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.MA, cs.AI, cs.CL, cs.CY arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12824v2 Large language models (LLMs) can generate high-level diverse phenomena without explicitly programmed rules. This capability has led to their adoption within different agent-based models (ABMs) and social simulations. Recent studies investigate their ability to generate different phenomena of interest, for example, human behavior on social media platforms or alien behavior in game-theoretic scenarios. However, capability, prediction, and explanation are different--drawing from the philosophy of science and mechanisms literature, explanation requires showing, to some degree, how a phenomenon is produced by related organized entities and activities. For modelers, describing the characteristics of an experiment or whether a simulation provides progress in capability (or explanation), can be difficult without being grounded in potentially distant research areas. We integrate recent work on LLM-ABMs with contemporary philosophy of science literature and use it to operationalize a definition of 'plausibility' in a four-level scale. Our scale separates the evaluation of a model's generative sufficiency (ability to reproduce a phenomenon) from its mechanistic plausibility (how the phenomenon could be produced), and clarifies the distinct roles of different models, such as predictive and explanatory ones. We introduce this as the Mechanism Plausibility Scale. --- ### Hessian Matching for Machine-Learned Coarse-Grained Molecular Dynamics Authors: Sanya Murdeshwar, Sanjit Shashi, Kevin Bachelor, William Noid, Razvan Marinescu Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, physics.chem-ph, physics.comp-ph, q-bio.BM arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12823v2 Coarse-grained (CG) molecular dynamics enables simulations of atomic systems such as biomolecules at timescales inaccessible to all-atom (AA) methods, but existing CG neural potentials trained via force matching capture only the gradient of the free-energy surface, leaving its curvature unsupervised. We introduce a framework that augments force matching with stochastic Hessian-vector product (HVP) matching, instilling second-order curvature information into CG potentials without constructing the full Hessian. We derive a decomposition of the target CG Hessian into a model-independent projected AA Hessian, precomputed once before training, and a model-dependent covariance correction computed online at negligible cost. We then construct an unbiased stochastic estimator of the Hessian-matching objective by using random probe vectors. We evaluate our method by training on a benchmark set of nine fast-folding proteins and gauging agreement of the learned free-energy landscapes with reference data along the directions of slowest collective motion using time-lagged independent component analysis. HVP matching improves slow-mode accuracy over force matching for all but one of our benchmark proteins. It also sharpens local structure, reducing bond-length error on eight of nine proteins, and in several cases by an order of magnitude. Our results demonstrate that higher-order physical supervision is a practical path to more accurate CG potentials for biomolecular simulation. --- ### Hessian Matching for Machine-Learned Coarse-Grained Molecular Dynamics Authors: Sanya Murdeshwar, Sanjit Shashi, Kevin Bachelor, William Noid, Ashwin Lokapally, Razvan Marinescu Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, physics.chem-ph, physics.comp-ph, q-bio.BM arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12823v1 Coarse-grained (CG) molecular dynamics enables simulations of atomic systems such as biomolecules at timescales inaccessible to all-atom (AA) methods, but existing CG neural potentials trained via force matching capture only the gradient of the free-energy surface, leaving its curvature unconstrained. We introduce a framework that augments force matching with stochastic Hessian-vector product (HVP) matching, instilling second-order curvature information into CG potentials without constructing the full Hessian. We derive a decomposition of the target CG Hessian into a model-independent projected AA Hessian, precomputed once before training, and a model-dependent covariance correction computed online at negligible cost. We construct an unbiased stochastic estimator of the Hessian-matching objective by using random probe vectors. We evaluate our method by comparing against force matching on a benchmark of nine fast-folding proteins unseen during training. HVP matching outperforms plain force matching on 8 of 9 proteins on slow-mode metrics, with reductions of up to 85% in the Kullback--Leibler divergence between the CG and reference distributions along the slowest collective mode of the largest protein. Our results demonstrate that higher-order physical supervision is a practical path to more accurate and transferable CG potentials for biomolecular simulation. --- ### Training Large Language Models to Predict Clinical Events Authors: Benjamin Turtel, Paul Wilczewski, Kris Skotheim Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, cs.AI, cs.CL arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12817v1 Longitudinal clinical notes contain rich evidence of how patients evolve over time, but converting this signal into training supervision for clinical prediction remains challenging. We extend Foresight Learning to clinical prediction by converting time-ordered MIMIC-III notes into examples consisting of past patient context, a natural-language question about a possible future event, and a label resolved from later documentation. This process yields 6,900 prediction examples from 702 admissions across medications, procedures, organ support, microbiology, and mortality. A small LoRA adapter trained on these examples improves over the prompted base model, reducing expected calibration error from 0.1269 to 0.0398 and Brier score from 0.199 to 0.145, while slightly outperforming GPT-5 point estimates on held-out questions. The approach enables reusable clinical prediction supervision from longitudinal notes without hand-engineered structured features or endpoint-specific classifiers. --- ### AGOP as Explanation: From Feature Learning to Per-Sample Attribution in Image Classifiers Authors: Raj Kiran Gupta Katakam Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12816v1 The Average Gradient Outer Product (AGOP) governs feature learning in neural networks: the Neural Feature Ansatz states that weight Gram matrices at each layer align with the corresponding AGOP matrices computed over the training distribution. We ask a complementary question: can this same quantity serve as a post-hoc attribution method for explaining individual predictions? We introduce AGOP-Weighted: a novel attribution method that multiplies the per-sample gradient by sqrt(diag(M) / max diag(M)), a training-distribution prior that suppresses gradient noise and amplifies consistently important pixels -- a combination not present in any prior attribution method. We formalise two companion variants -- AGOP-Local (per-sample gradient, equivalent to VanillaGrad) and AGOP-Global (diag(M) directly as a zero-cost saliency map) -- and implement an efficient training-time accumulation hook; AGOP-Global then requires zero inference cost (disk lookup) while AGOP-Weighted requires only a single gradient pass. We conduct the first rigorous comparison of AGOP attribution against Integrated Gradients (IG), SmoothGrad, GradCAM, and VanillaGrad across two benchmarks with pixel-level ground truth: (i) the synthetic XAI-TRIS benchmark (four classification scenarios, 8x8 images, CNN8by8) and (ii) the photorealistic CLEVR-XAI benchmark (ResNet-18 fine-tuned from ImageNet). AGOP-Weighted achieves 44% higher mIoU than IG on linear tasks; AGOP-Global achieves 7x higher mIoU than IG on multiplicative tasks (where IG falls below random) at zero inference cost. Both findings generalise to ResNet-18 on CLEVR-XAI (+18% and +37% respectively). We further show that GradCAM fails on small-resolution images due to spatial resolution collapse, and that diag(M) quality improves monotonically throughout training even after classification accuracy has plateaued. --- ### Linking Extreme Discourse to Structural Polarization in Signed Interaction Networks Authors: Zhijin Guo, Li Zhang, Tyler Bonnet, Janet B. Pierrehumbert, Xiaowen Dong Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.SI, cs.CL arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12814v1 Polarization in online communities is often studied through either language or interaction structure, but the two views are rarely connected in a unified measurement pipeline. Prior work links them by building interaction graphs from human judgments of agreement and disagreement, leaving a gap between language as observed text and structure as an engineered representation of that text. We address this gap with a language-grounded signed-network pipeline that derives continuous signed edge weights from LLM stance scores and quantifies structural polarization using two complementary measures: a spectral Eigen-Sign score and a partition-based frustration score. After normalization, the two measures show substantial agreement while retaining important differences in their sensitivity to edge magnitude. Applying the framework to Reddit Brexit discussions, we analyze how window-level discourse signals, including toxicity, extreme scalar claims, and perplexity, relate to temporal variation in structural polarization. Edge-level and ablation analyses show that continuous, confidence-weighted signed edges reveal intensity-sensitive patterns that are muted under sign-only representations. We further report an exploratory one-step-ahead forecasting analysis suggesting that lagged language signals may contain information about future polarization beyond structural persistence. Together, the results demonstrate how discourse and signed-network structure can be connected in a single framework for measuring and interpreting polarization dynamics over time. --- ### REALISTA: Realistic Latent Adversarial Attacks that Elicit LLM Hallucinations Authors: Buyun Liang, Jinqi Luo, Liangzu Peng, Kwan Ho Ryan Chan, Darshan Thaker, Kaleab A. Kinfu, Fengrui Tian, Hamed Hassani, René Vidal Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.CL, cs.AI, cs.CR, cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12813v2 Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across many tasks but remain vulnerable to hallucinations, making it important to systematically evaluate their reliability under realistic adversarial inputs. We formulate hallucination elicitation as a constrained optimization problem, where the goal is to find semantically coherent adversarial prompts that are equivalent to benign user prompts. Existing attack methods remain limited: discrete prompt-based attacks preserve semantic equivalence and coherence but search only over a limited set of prompt variations, while continuous latent-space attacks explore a richer space but often decode into prompts that are no longer valid rephrasings. To address these limitations, we propose REALISTA, a realistic latent-space attack framework. REALISTA constructs an input-dependent dictionary of valid editing directions, each corresponding to a semantically equivalent and coherent rephrasing, and optimizes continuous combinations of these directions in latent space. This design combines the optimization flexibility of continuous attacks with the semantic realism of discrete rephrasing-based attacks. Experiments demonstrate that REALISTA achieves superior or comparable performance to state-of-the-art realistic attacks on open-source LLMs and, crucially, succeeds in attacking large reasoning models under free-form response settings, where prior realistic attacks fail. Code is available at https://github.com/Buyun-Liang/REALISTA. --- ### Correcting Influence: Unboxing LLM Outputs with Orthogonal Latent Spaces Authors: Shixing Yu, Promit Ghosal, Kyra Gan Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, cs.AI arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12809v1 A critical step for reliable large language models (LLMs) use in healthcare is to attribute predictions to their training data, akin to a medical case study. This requires token-level precision: pinpointing not just which training examples influence a decision, but which tokens within them are responsible. While influence functions offer a principled framework for this, prior work is restricted to autoregressive settings and relies on an implicit assumption of token independence, rendering their identified influences unreliable. We introduce a flexible framework that infers token-level influence through a latent mediation approach for general prediction tasks. Our method attaches sparse autoencoders to any layer of a pretrained LLM to learn a basis of approximately independent latent features. Unlike prior methods where influence decomposes additively across tokens, influence computed over latent features is inherently non-decomposable. To address this, we introduce a novel method using Jacobian-vector products. Token-level influence is obtained by propagating latent attributions back to the input space via token activation patterns. We scale our approach using efficient inverse-Hessian approximations. Experiments on medical benchmarks show our approach identifies sparse, interpretable sets of tokens that jointly influence predictions. Our framework enhances trust and enables model auditing, generalizing to high-stakes domain requiring transparent and accountable decisions. --- ### Neurodata Without Boredom: Benchmarking Agentic AI for Data Reuse Authors: Ling-Qi Zhang, Kristin Branson Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12808v2 Neuroscience data are highly fragmented across labs, formats, and experimental paradigms, and reuse often requires substantial manual effort. A persistent roadblock to data reuse and integration is the need to decipher bespoke and diverse data formatting choices. Common data formats have been proposed in response, but the field continues to struggle with a fundamental tension: formats flexible enough to accommodate diverse experiments are rarely descriptive enough to be self-explanatory, and sufficiently descriptive formats demand detailed documentation and curation effort that few labs can sustain. Agentic AI is a natural candidate to solve this problem: LLMs read code and text faster and with sustained attention to the low-level details humans tend to skim over. To measure how well agentic AI performs on this task, we selected eight recent papers studying large-scale mouse neural population recordings that shared both data and code, spanning diverse recording modalities, behavioral paradigms, and dataset formats (e.g., NWB, specialized APIs, and general-purpose Python or MATLAB files). We provided agents with the data, code, and paper, and prompted them to load, understand, and reformat the data for a common downstream task: training a decoder from neural activity to task or behavioral variables. General-purpose coding agents commonly used by scientists performed well on each sub-task, but rarely strung together a fully error-free end-to-end solution. We characterize the types of mistakes agents made and the dataset properties that elicited them, and propose data-sharing best practices for the agentic-AI era. We further find that agents-as-judges are unreliable at catching errors, especially without ground-truth references, so interactive, human-in-the-loop coding remains necessary. --- ### Discrete MeanFlow: One-Step Generation via Conditional Transition Kernels Authors: Fairoz Nower Khan, Nabuat Zaman Nahim, Md Sajid Ahmed, Ruiquan Huang, Peizhong Ju Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, cs.AI arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12805v1 MeanFlow enables one-step generation in continuous spaces by learning an average velocity over a time interval rather than the instantaneous velocity field of flow matching. However, discrete state spaces do not have smooth trajectories or spatial derivatives, so the continuous formulation does not directly apply. We introduce Discrete MeanFlow, which replaces the motion of a point with the transport of probability mass over finite states. Our key object is the conditional transition kernel of a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC), from which we define a mean discrete rate that measures the average change in transition probability over a time interval. We prove a Discrete MeanFlow identity that relates this finite-interval rate to the instantaneous CTMC generator at the endpoint, with the Kolmogorov forward equation replacing the spatial chain rule of continuous MeanFlow. Based on this identity, we parameterize the transition kernel directly using a boundary-by-construction design that guarantees valid probability outputs and exact boundary conditions without auxiliary losses. Since the learned kernel is itself a probability distribution, generation reduces to a single forward pass followed by one categorical draw meaning no iterative denoising, ODE integration, or multi-step refinement is required. We validate the framework on exact finite-state Markov chains, where the learned kernel recovers the analytical ground truth to high precision, and on factorized synthetic sequence generation tasks with varying alphabet sizes and sequence lengths. --- ### Pitfalls of Unlabeled Disagreement-Based Drift Detection in Streaming Tree Ensembles Authors: Lara Sá Neves, Afonso Lourenço, Lizy K. John, Goreti Marreiros Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12803v1 Detecting concept drift in high-speed data streams remains challenging, particularly when models must operate on unlabeled data and avoid false alarms caused by benign shifts. While disagreement-based uncertainty has shown promise in neural networks, its adaptation to ensembles of incremental decision trees (IDTs) remains largely unexplored. We investigate this approach by constructing batch-specific disagreement measures via label flipping in ensemble members and evaluating their effectiveness for drift detection in tabular data streams. Our experiments show that, although this method performs well in ensembles of multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs), it consistently underperforms loss-based detectors when applied to IDTs. We attribute this behavior to the intrinsic rigidity of IDTs: learning primarily through structural expansion, with limited parameter adaptation, restricts model plasticity and prevents disagreement from reliably reflecting learning potential. Recent work on restructuring IDTs using their intrinsic decomposition into non-overlapping rules offers a promising direction for improving adaptability. --- ### Emergent and Subliminal Misalignment Through the Lens of Data-Mediated Transfer Authors: Baris Askin, Muhammed Ustaomeroglu, Anupam Nayak, Gauri Joshi, Guannan Qu, Carlee Joe-Wong Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, cs.AI, cs.CL arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12798v1 Fine-tuning LLMs on narrow harmful datasets can induce Emergent Misalignment (EM), where models exhibit misaligned behavior far beyond the fine-tuning distribution. We argue that emergent misalignment can be better understood as a data-mediated transfer phenomenon: harmful fine-tuning examples do not induce uniform behavioral spillover, but interact with the structural properties of the dataset and the difficulty of the tasks relative to the model. Across our experiments, we find that misalignment appears more readily when fine-tuning and evaluation prompts share similar underlying functional structure, when prompts leave more room for coherent harmful completions, and when the target behavior has been more reliably learned by the model. The training pipeline itself also matters: pretraining composition shapes later misalignment. We further study Subliminal Learning (SL), where misalignment is transmitted by fine-tuning on seemingly benign data generated by a harmful teacher. Moving beyond the standard SFT setting, we for the first time compare this transfer under off-policy and on-policy distillation as well, allowing us to separate the roles of the teacher guidance and the training data distribution in transmitting misalignment. Together, these results argue for a data-centric view: Emergent/subliminal misalignment should not be treated as a simple consequence of isolated harmful fine-tuning examples, but as the result of interactions between fine-tuning data structure, pretraining distributions, and training channels. --- ### SoK: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Current Status of Neural Tangent Generalization Attacks with Research Directions Authors: Thushari Hapuarachchi, Kaiqi Xiong Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12792v1 There is recently a serious issue that Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) training uses more and more unauthorized data. A clean-label generalization attack, one type of data poisoning attacks, has been suggested to address this issue. The Neural Tangent Generalization Attack (NTGA) is considered as the first well-known clean-label generalization attack under the black-box settings, which provided an unprecedented step in data protection approaches. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis on the state-of-the-art of NTGA; to the best of our knowledge, this is the first thorough analysis regarding NTGA. First, we provide a classification of attacks against DNNs with their explanations and relations to NTGA. Then, this paper presents a taxonomy of black-box attacks and demonstrate that the NTGA is the first clean-label generalization attack under the black-box setting. We further analyze the existing studies of NTGA and give a comprehensive comparisons of their findings by conducting our own experiments to verify these findings. Moreover, our extensive experiments show that NTGA is vulnerable to adversarial training and image transformations, and applying linear separability to NTGA-generated images makes them more susceptible to such vulnerablities. We present the pros and cons of NTGA and suggest ways to improve NTGA robustness based on our analysis. Our further experiments indicate that several recently proposed clean-label generalization attacks outperform NTGA on data protection. Finally, we unveil the necessity of further research with future research insights on NTGA. --- ### From Heuristics to Analytics: Forecasting Effort and Progress in Online Learning Authors: Eric S. Qiu, Danielle R. Thomas, Boyuan Guo, Vincent Aleven, Conrad Borchers Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, cs.CY arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12788v1 Sustained effort is essential for realizing the benefits of intelligent tutoring systems (ITS), yet many learners disengage or underuse available practice time. We introduce engagement forecasting as a supervised prediction task based on ITS logs, targeting two outcomes central to effort and learning progress: minutes practiced per week and new skills mastered per week. Using interaction log data from 425 middle-school students over a school year, we benchmark fifteen predictors including regressions, decision trees, and neural networks. We show that these feature-based models reduce mean absolute error (MAE) by 22-33% relative to heuristic baselines, including fixed-percentile rules adapted from prior work in other behavioral domains. We find that percentile heuristics systematically overpredict, whereas feature-based models better track student practice trajectories across weeks. To support explainability, we analyze feature importance and ablations, revealing target-specific patterns: effort forecasting is driven mainly by recent activity features, while progress forecasting depends more on learner-state and content difficulty signals. Finally, in a semi-structured user interview case study with eight college tutors, we examine how tutors reasoned about system-generated predictive features when setting goals with students. We find that tutors reasoned differently about effort versus progress goals in ways that mirror our pattern analysis. Together, these results establish a reproducible benchmark for forecasting weekly effort and learning progress in ITS. By making patterns of sustained effort and progress visible at a weekly timescale, engagement forecasting offers a foundation for supporting tutor-learner goal setting and timely instructional decisions. --- ### Identifying the nonlinear string dynamics with port-Hamiltonian neural networks Authors: Maximino Linares, Guillaume Doras, Thomas Hélie Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, eess.SY, math.DS arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12785v1 Hybrid machine learning combines physical knowledge with data-driven models to enhance interpretability and performance. In this context, Port-Hamiltonian Systems (PHS), which generalize Hamiltonian mechanics to describe open, non-autonomous dynamical systems, have been successfully integrated with neural networks under the name Port-Hamiltonian Neural Networks (PHNNs). While the ability of PHNNs to identify Hamiltonian ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems has already been demonstrated, their application to learning Hamiltonian partial differential equation (PDE) systems remains largely unexplored. This limitation restricts their use in musical acoustics, where instruments are typically modeled as distributed parameter systems governed by PDEs. In this work, we demonstrate how to learn the nonlinear string dynamics from data in a physically-consistent framework through a PHNN extension to PDEs. By constructing structured neural network architectures based on PHS, we can recover both the Hamiltonian governing the string and the dissipation affecting it. This approach outperforms baseline, non-physics-informed methods in terms of both accuracy and interpretability. Numerical experiments using synthetic data demonstrate the ability of the proposed PHNN model to identify and emulate the nonlinear dynamics of the system. --- ### ToolMol: Evolutionary Agentic Framework for Multi-objective Drug Discovery Authors: Andrew Y. Zhou, Sharvaree Vadgama, Sumanth Varambally, Peter Eckmann, Michael K. Gilson, Rose Yu Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, cs.NE, q-bio.QM arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12784v2 Advances in large language models (LLMs) have recently opened new and promising avenues for small-molecule drug discovery. Yet existing LLM-based approaches for molecular generation often suffer from high rates of invalid and low-quality ligand candidates, a result of the syntactic limitations of current models with regard to molecular strings. In this paper, we introduce $\texttt{ToolMol}$, an evolutionary agentic framework for de novo drug design. $\texttt{ToolMol}$ combines a multi-objective genetic algorithm with an agentic LLM operator that iteratively updates the ligand population. We build a comprehensive toolbox of RDKit-backed functions that allows our agentic operator to consisently make precise ligand modifications. $\texttt{ToolMol}$ achieves state-of-the-art performance on multi-objective property optimization tasks, discovering drug-like and synthesizable ligands that have $>10\%$ stronger predicted binding affinity compared to existing methods, evaluated on three protein targets. $\texttt{ToolMol}$ ligands additionally achieve state-of-the-art results in gold-standard Absolute Binding Free Energy scores, gaining over existing methods by over $35\%$. By studying chain-of-thought reasoning traces, we observe that tool-calling enables the model to more faithfully execute its planned modifications, efficiently exploiting the strong chemical prior knowledge in LLMs. --- ### Graph-Based Financial Fraud Detection with Calibrated Risk Scoring and Structural Regularization Authors: Yunfei Nie, Jiawei Wang, Ruobing Yan, Yuhan Wang, Zouxiaowei Ma, Yilun Wu Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12782v1 Financial transaction fraud prevention faces challenges such as complex relationship structures, concealed behavioral patterns, and dynamically changing data distribution. Discrimination models relying solely on independent sample features are insufficient to fully characterize the risks of group collaboration and chain transfers within transaction networks. This paper proposes a graph neural network representation learning and risk discrimination framework for financial transaction fraud prevention. It integrates transaction records and identity information into node attributes and constructs a transaction graph based on shared attributes and interaction consistency to explicitly model inter-transaction relationships. In model design, a multi-layer message passing mechanism is employed to aggregate neighborhood information, learn node embedding representations containing structural context semantics, and output transaction-level fraud probability and risk scores through a lightweight risk discrimination head. A weighted supervision objective is introduced to mitigate training bias caused by class imbalance, and structural consistency regularization constraints are combined to suppress the impact of noisy edges on representation drift, thereby improving the stability and usability of risk characterization. Experiments are conducted on a publicly available financial transaction dataset, comparing various methods in the same direction and comprehensively evaluating them under a unified evaluation protocol. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other methods in risk ranking and probability calibration quality, validating the effectiveness of graph structure modeling and representation learning collaboration in financial transaction fraud prevention. --- ### When to Trust Confidence Thresholding: Calibration Diagnostics for Pseudo-Labelled Regression Authors: Marcell T. Kurbucz Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: stat.ME, cs.LG, stat.ML arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12780v1 Calibrated probability outputs of trained classifiers are increasingly used as inputs to downstream regression estimands such as effects, prevalences, or disparities for a latent group observed only on a small labelled subset. A standard practice is to threshold the calibrated score at a confidence cutoff and treat the hard label as the truth. Building on a recent identification result for the underlying moment equation, we develop a calibration-aware diagnostic apparatus for pseudo-labelling pipelines. We derive a closed-form expression for the attenuation bias that confidence thresholding induces in the downstream regression coefficient, and show that the bias can be predicted, before any inference is run, from the residual score variance $V^{*}=\mathbb{E}(\operatorname{Var}(p\mid X))$ on the unlabelled set after partialling out the downstream controls $X$. We further obtain a sharp sensitivity bound under bounded calibration drift, and identify the boundary $V^{*}=0$, which holds iff $p$ is a deterministic function of $X$; this motivates a structural separation between classifier features $W$ and downstream controls $X\subsetneq W$. Five controlled simulations and a UCI Adult illustration trace the predictions. The contribution is operational: a $(V^{*}, κ)$ decision rule that practitioners can compute from any classifier output to decide whether confidence thresholding is safe. --- ### Generative Motion In-betweening by Diffusion over Continuous Implicit Representations Authors: Shiyu Fan, Paul Henderson, Edmond S. L. Ho Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.GR, cs.CV arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12778v1 Recent advances in generative models have yielded impressive progress on motion in-betweening, allowing for more complex, varied, and realistic motion transitions. However, recent methods still exhibit noticeable limitations in preserving keyframe information and ensuring motion continuity. In this paper, we propose a novel pipeline and sampling optimization strategy for latent diffusion models (LDM) based on motion implicit neural representations (INR). By establishing a mapping between INR and sparse spatial or temporal information within latent diffusion, our model can sample the INR parameters from extremely sparse and ambiguous keyframe data and reconstruct plausible and smooth motions from the manifold. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our model, which significantly improves motion generation quality in scenarios with few keyframes while ensuring both keyframe accuracy and diversity of in-between motions. --- ### WildPose: A Unified Framework for Robust Pose Estimation in the Wild Authors: Jianhao Zheng, Liyuan Zhu, Zihan Zhu, Iro Armeni Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.CV arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12774v1 Estimating camera pose in dynamic environments is a critical challenge, as most visual SLAM and SfM methods assume static scenes. While recent dynamic-aware methods exist, they are often not unified: semantic-based approaches are brittle, per-sequence optimization methods fail on short sequences, and other learned models may degrade on static-only scenes. We present WildPose, a unified monocular pose estimation framework that is robust in dynamic environments while maintaining state-of-the-art performance on static and low-ego-motion datasets. Our key insight is to connect two powerful paradigms in modern 3D vision: the rich perceptual frontend of feedforward models and the end-to-end optimization of differentiable bundle adjustment (BA). We achieve this with a 3D-aware update operator built on a frozen, pre-trained MASt3R feature backbone, together with a high-capacity motion mask detector that uses multi-level 3D-aware features from the same backbone. Extensive experiments show WildPose consistently outperforms prior methods across dynamic (Wild-SLAM, Bonn), static (TUM, 7-Scenes), and low-ego-motion (Sintel) benchmarks. --- ### Just Ask for a Table: A Thirty-Token User Prompt Defeats Sponsored Recommendations in Twelve LLMs Authors: Andreas Maier, Jeta Sopa, Gozde Gul Sahin, Paula Perez-Toro, Siming Bayer Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.CV arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12772v1 Wu et al. (2026) showed that most frontier large language models (LLMs) recommend a sponsored, roughly twice-as-expensive flight when their system prompt contains a soft sponsorship cue. We reproduce their evaluation on ten open-weight chat models plus the two of their twenty-three models that are still reachable today (gpt-3.5-turbo, gpt-4o). All reported rates in this paper are produced under the same judge the original paper used (gpt-4o); we additionally store every label under an open-weight (gpt-oss-120b) and a smaller proprietary (gpt-4o-mini) judge for an ablation. Three findings emerge. First, a prose description of an LLM evaluation pipeline is not, on its own, sufficient for accurate reproduction: we surfaced three silent implementation failures that each shifted a reported rate by tens of percentage points. Second, the central claims do generalise - the gpt-3.5-turbo logistic-regression intercept of alpha = 0.81 is within four points of the original alpha = 0.86, and 200 of 200 trials on gpt-3.5-turbo and gpt-4o promote a payday lender to a financially distressed user. Third, a thirty-token user prompt that asks the assistant for a neutral comparison table first cuts sponsored recommendation from 46.9% to 1.0% averaged across our ten open-source models, and from 53.0% to 0% averaged across the two OpenAI models. AI literacy and price-comparison portals are likely market-level mitigations; the harmful-product cell is bounded by neither. Raw data, labels and analysis scripts are at https://github.com/akmaier/Paper-LLM-Ads . --- ### Adaptive Smooth Tchebycheff Attention for Multi-Objective Policy Optimization Authors: Alejandro Murillo-Gonzalez, Mahmoud Ali, Lantao Liu Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.RO, cs.AI, cs.LG, eess.SY, math.OC arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12771v1 Multi-objective reinforcement learning in robotic domains requires balancing complex, non-convex trade-offs between conflicting objectives. While linear scalarization methods provide stability, they are theoretically incapable of recovering solutions within non-convex regions of the Pareto front. Conversely, static non-linear scalarizations (e.g., Tchebycheff) can theoretically access these regions but often suffer from severe gradient variance and optimization instability in deep RL. In this work, we propose an Adaptive Smooth Tchebycheff framework that resolves this tension by dynamically modulating the curvature of the optimization landscape. We introduce a novel conflict-driven controller that regulates the optimization smoothness based on real-time gradient interference. This allows the agent to anneal toward precise, non-convex scalarization when objectives align, while elastically reverting to stable, smooth approximations when destructive gradient conflicts emerge. We validate our approach on a challenging robotic stealth visual search task -- a proxy for monitoring of protected/fragile ecosystems -- where an agent must balance search, exposure/interference minimization and exploration speed. Extensive ablations confirm that our conflict-aware adaptation enables the robust discovery of Pareto-optimal policies in non-convex regions inaccessible to linear baselines and unstable for static non-linear methods. Website: https://alejandromllo.github.io/research/pasta/ --- ### WriteSAE: Sparse Autoencoders for Recurrent State Authors: Jack Young Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, cs.AI, cs.CL arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12770v4 We introduce WriteSAE, a sparse autoencoder for the matrix updates written into recurrent language-model state. In Gated DeltaNet, Mamba-2, and RWKV-7, each token writes a matrix-shaped update to a recurrent cache; a residual-stream SAE has vector-shaped atoms and cannot replace that update directly. WriteSAE learns rank-1 matrix atoms with the same shape as the model's own write. This lets us test a direct replacement: at positions where the SAE activates an atom, we remove the model's write, insert the atom scaled by its SAE activation, and continue the forward pass. The atom gives a closer final token distribution than deleting the write on 92.4% of evaluated positions; averaged per atom, the rate is 89.8%. For Gated DeltaNet, a formula using the forget gate, read query, and output embedding predicts the resulting logit change with $R^2 = 0.98$. The same replacement test transfers to Mamba-2-370M at 88.1%. In generation, the formula chooses a write direction; writing it into three consecutive cache positions at $3\times$ the norm of the model's write makes tokens initially ranked 100--1000 by the unmodified model appear in 100% of continuations, up from 33.3%. To our knowledge this is the first cache-level steering intervention reported in a state-space or hybrid recurrent layer. --- ### ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks Authors: Zhizhen Zhang, Hyemin Gu, Benjamin J. Zhang, Daniel Elenius, Michael Tyrrell, Theo J. Bourdais, Houman Owhadi, Markos A. Katsoulakis, Tuhin Sahai Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: stat.ML, cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12768v3 Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand is served from inventory or recorded as backlog and triggers replenishment throughout the network. The state tracks inventory, outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, yielding Markovian dynamics on a tractable state space. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, while three conservation laws provide verification tools for simulator extensions. We release datasets at two catalogue scales ($C=50$ and $C=200$), with a 33-rollout scenario library at $C=50$. These datasets exhibit dynamics largely absent from fixed TSF benchmarks, including variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of three foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM) against three in-domain-trained baselines (ARIMA, ETS, PatchTST) spans four targets: demand, backlog, fill rate, and edge utilization. Comparison with ETTh1, Electricity, and Weather shows that ISOMORPH introduces forecasting regimes that differ from standard real-world TSF benchmarks, positioning it as a complementary, regenerable logistics-domain benchmark. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands across scenario configurations, providing forward UQ from parameter uncertainty and demonstrating foundation models as fast surrogates for digital-twin-based UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH. Interactive demo: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HyeminGu/ISOMORPH-demo. --- ### ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks Authors: Zhizhen Zhang, Hyemin Gu, Benjamin J. Zhang, Daniel Elenius, Michael Tyrrell, Theo J. Bourdais, Houman Owhadi, Markos A. Katsoulakis, Tuhin Sahai Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: stat.ML, cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12768v2 Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand is served from inventory or recorded as backlog and triggers replenishment throughout the network. The state tracks inventory, outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, yielding Markovian dynamics on a tractable state space. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, while three conservation laws provide verification tools for simulator extensions. We release datasets at two catalogue scales ($C=50$ and $C=200$), six scenario sweeps, and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations. These datasets exhibit dynamics largely absent from fixed TSF benchmarks, including variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, and Lag-Llama) yields MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmark suites. The same models provide forecast confidence bands through Latin-hypercube perturbations of demand-side parameters, enabling forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) unavailable on standard TSF datasets and demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for digital-twin-based UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH. Interactive demo: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HyeminGu/ISOMORPH-demo. --- ### Inference-Time Machine Unlearning via Gated Activation Redirection Authors: Vinícius Conte Turani, Otávio Parraga, João Vitor Boer Abitante, Kristen K. Arguello, Joana Pasquali, Ramiro N. Barros, Flavio du Pin Calmon, Christian Mattjie, Rodrigo C. Barros, Lucas S. Kupssinskü Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12765v3 Large Language Models memorize vast amounts of training data, raising concerns regarding privacy, copyright infringement, and safety. Machine unlearning seeks to remove the influence of a targeted forget set while preserving model performance, ideally approximating a model retrained from scratch without the forget set. Existing approaches aim to achieve this by updating model parameters via gradient-based methods. However, these updates are computationally expensive, lead to irreversible weight changes, and degrade when the model is quantized for deployment. A recent alternative to changing model weights is activation engineering, where activations are changed during inference to steer model behavior. Despite circumventing weight editing, naive activation steering introduces its own failure modes, as a single global steering vector applies the same intervention to every input, leading to unintended changes in model behavior. We introduce Inference-Time Unlearning via Gated Activation Redirection (GUARD-IT), a training- and gradient-free method that unlearns via input-dependent activation steering at inference time. The resulting intervention is applied as a norm-preserving rotation in the residual stream, leaving model weights untouched. Experiments on TOFU and MUSE show that GUARD-IT matches or exceeds 12 gradient-based baselines across three model scales, while being the only method to simultaneously preserve utility, suppress memorization, and avoid catastrophic collapse across all settings. GUARD-IT further supports continual unlearning without retraining, and remains effective under quantization, a scenario in which parameter-editing methods degrade. --- ### Yield Curves Dynamics Using Variational Autoencoders Under No-arbitrage Authors: Fusheng Luo, H'elyette Geman Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: q-fin.MF, cs.LG, stat.ML arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12764v3 This paper introduces a physics-informed generative framework that resolves the fundamental conflict between the statistical flexibility of deep learning and the rigorous theoretical constraints of fixed-income modeling. We demonstrate that standard generative models and unconstrained statistical extrapolations suffer from "manifold collapse" and severe arbitrage violations when forecasting term structures across diverse macroeconomic regimes. To overcome this, we propose a two-stage architecture. First, a Student-t Conditional Variational Autoencoder with Dynamic Level Injection (CVAEsT+LS) extracts a robust, heavy-tailed term structure manifold, effectively decoupling macroeconomic shape dynamics from absolute base rates. Second, the latent dynamic evolution is governed by a continuous-time Neural Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) strictly penalized by a No-Arbitrage Partial Differential Equation (PDE). Empirical results across multiple sovereign currencies (USD, GBP, JPY) confirm that our synergistic approach drastically reduces out-of-sample forecasting errors -- achieving an exceptional 6.58 bps Mean Tenor RMSE -- and successfully overcomes the massive parallel drift and zero-lower-bound violations exhibited by the classical HJM model in extreme environments. Furthermore, through phase space vector field analysis, we demonstrate the model's superior capability in unsupervised macroeconomic regime detection and high-quality continuous-time scenario generation. Ultimately, this research provides a highly scalable, mathematically sound evolutionary engine for term structure modeling. --- ### Center-Manifold Reduction of Learning at Bifurcations: Interference and Rich Learning in Recurrent Neural Networks Authors: James Hazelden, Eric Shea-Brown Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, math.DS, math.OC, q-bio.NC arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12763v2 Rich learning in recurrent neural networks often proceeds through sudden transitions in latent dynamics, but there is little theory predicting how gradient descent behaves during these events. We study the local learning geometry near codimension-one bifurcations through the global empirical Neural Tangent Kernel (GeNTK). Under local center-manifold conditions, and when bifurcation-related sensitivity dominates bounded residual terms, we show that the global parameter-to-state Jacobian \(D_θh\) is approximated by a low-rank normal-form operator. The induced GeNTK and Fisher information matrix therefore become strongly amplified and anisotropic, concentrating toward a rank-one channel for the four scalar codimension-one bifurcations and a rank-two real channel for a Neimark--Sacker bifurcation. Controlled high-dimensional RNN experiments validate this operator reduction. In learned RNNs, the same low-rank concentration coincides with abrupt loss changes and subtask interference, while a local projection predicts the sign of these effects near isolated events. Finally, in an input-driven 15-task LeakyRNN, GeNTK amplification aligns with continuation-detected changes in the MemoryPro dynamics. These results suggest a tractable operator-level description of learning near dynamical transitions, together with scalable diagnostics for amplified low-dimensional learning geometry. --- ### State-Space NTK Collapse Near Bifurcations Authors: James Hazelden, Eric Shea-Brown Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, math.DS, math.OC, q-bio.NC arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12763v1 Rich feature learning in tasks that unfold over time often requires the model to pass through bifurcations, constituting qualitative changes in the underlying model dynamics. We develop a local theory of gradient descent near these transitions through the empirical state-space neural tangent kernel (sNTK). Our central finding is that bifurcations both dominate and simplify learning dynamics: near bifurcations, we can reduce sNTK to a rank-one operator corresponding to learning in a classical normal form system, providing an analytically tractable description of the local learning geometry, even for high-dimensional recurrent systems. Concretely, we give a procedure for decomposing sNTK into bifurcation-relevant and residual channels, showing that near commonly codimension-1 bifurcations the relevant channel is a rank-one operator that is highly amplified. This amplification causes the bifurcation channel to dominate the full sNTK. Thus, bifurcations locally warp the learning landscape, funneling gradient descent into a few critical dynamical directions and making the nearby kernel and loss geometry predictable from classical normal forms. We illustrate this in a student-teacher recurrent neural network: the first learned bifurcation coincides with a sharp collapse in sNTK effective rank and the emergence of a dominant parameter direction whose restricted sNTK closely matches the landscape predicted by the scalar pitchfork normal form. Finally, we show that low-rank natural gradient methods resolve the resulting learning instability near bifurcations with very little overhead over SGD. --- ### Multi-Quantile Regression for Extreme Precipitation Downscaling Authors: Hamed Najafi, Gareth Lagerwall, Jayantha Obeysekera, Jason Liu Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, cs.AI arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12762v1 Deep super-resolution networks for precipitation downscaling achieve strong bulk skill yet systematically under-predict the heavy-tail events that drive flood risk. We demonstrate that the primary obstacle is the loss function, not the data: under intensity-weighted MAE, real and synthetic labels at the same input are simply averaged, meaning data augmentation shifts the predicted mean rather than the conditional distribution. We resolve this with Q-SRDRN, a multi-quantile super-resolution network trained with pinball loss at tau in 0.50, 0.95, 0.99, 0.999. Two CNN-specific design choices make this practical: IncrementBound enforces monotonicity while preserving each quantile channel's gradient identity, and separate per-quantile output heads provide independent filter banks for bulk and tail detection. Under this design, data augmentation via cVAE becomes complementary: the median head absorbs synthetic patterns without contaminating upper quantiles. Empirically, on Florida (convective/tropical-cyclone dominated), the un-augmented Q-SRDRN P999 head detects 1,598 of 2,111 events at 200 mm/day versus 88 for the deterministic baseline--an 18x detection-rate gain (4.2% to 75.7%)--with 63% lower KL divergence and 3.9% lower RMSE. Adding cVAE-generated samples lifts the P50 channel from 14 to 1,038 hits at 200 mm/day. On California (atmospheric-river dominated), the architecture reaches near-perfect detection (P999 SEDI >= 0.996 through 300 mm/day). On Texas, the baseline catches only 2 of 10,720 events at 200 mm/day while the P999 head catches 8,776 (81.9%). While the cVAE does not transfer across regions, multi-quantile regression captures extremes wherever the large-scale signal is strong, while augmentation rescues the median where it is not. --- ### Predicting Channel Closures in the Lightning Network with Machine Learning Authors: Simone Antonelli, Vincent Davis, Harrison Rush, Anthony Potdevin, Jesse Shrader, Vikash Singh, Emanuele Rossi Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG, cs.SI arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12759v2 The Lightning Network (LN) is a second-layer protocol for Bitcoin designed to enable fast and cost-efficient off-chain transactions. Channels in the LN can be closed either by mutual agreement or unilaterally through a forced closure, which locks the involved capital for an extended period and degrades network reliability. In this paper, we study the problem of predicting channel closure types from publicly available gossip data, framing it as a temporal link classification task over the evolving channel graph. We construct a dataset spanning over two years of LN activity and benchmark a range of machine learning approaches, from MLPs to temporal graph neural networks and spectral encodings. Our experiments reveal that the dominant predictive signals are temporal and behavioural, namely how recently each endpoint was active and the per-node history of past closures, while the surrounding network topology provides no additional benefit. We find that a simple MLP operating on edge-level features, node-level event counts, and temporal patterns outperforms all graph-based approaches, and discuss how the inherent privacy of the LN, where critical information such as channel balances and payment flows remains hidden, fundamentally limits the predictability of closures from gossip data alone. We publicly release the dataset and code at https://github.com/AmbossTech/ln-channel-closure-prediction. --- ### Uncovering Symmetry Transfer in Large Language Models via Layer-Peeled Optimization Authors: Zhehang Du, Hangfeng He, Weijie Su Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: math.OC, cs.AI, stat.ML arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12756v1 Large language models (LLMs) are pretrained by minimizing the cross-entropy loss for next-token prediction. In this paper, we study whether this optimization strategy can induce geometric structure in the learned model weights and context embeddings. We approach this problem by analyzing a constrained layer-peeled optimization program, which serves as a mathematically tractable surrogate for LLMs by treating the output projection matrix and last-layer context embeddings as optimization variables. Our analysis of this nonconvex optimization program demonstrates that symmetries in the target next-token distributions are transferred to the global minimizers of the layer-peeled model in a precise group-theoretic sense. Specifically, we prove that when the target tokens exhibit a cyclic-shift symmetry (such as the seven days of the week or the twelve months of the year), the optimal logit matrix is exactly circulant, and the Gram matrices of both the output projections and the context embeddings form circulant geometries as well. Next, for exchangeable target distributions invariant under the symmetric group and, more generally, under two-transitive group actions, we show that the global optimal output projection matrix forms a simplex equiangular tight frame, while the optimal logit matrix and context embeddings inherit the permutation symmetries present in the input data. A key technical step is to reduce the constrained nonconvex factorized problem to an explicit logit-level convex characterization for cyclic symmetry and to a symmetry-based lower bound for permutation symmetry, together with a sharp characterization of the optimal factorization. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that open-source LLMs naturally exhibit symmetries consistent with our theoretical predictions, despite being trained without any explicit regularization promoting such geometric structure. --- ### State-Centric Decision Process Authors: Sungheon Jeong, Ryozo Masukawa, Sanggeon Yun, Mahdi Imani, Mohsen Imani Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.AI arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12755v1 Language environments such as web browsers, code terminals, and interactive simulations emit raw text rather than states, and provide none of the runtime structure that MDP analysis requires. No explicit state space, no observation-to-state mapping, no certified transitions, and no termination criterion. We introduce the State-Centric Decision Process (SDP), a runtime framework that constructs these missing inputs by having the agent build them, predicate by predicate, as it acts. At each step the agent commits to a natural-language predicate describing how the world should look, takes an action to make it true, and checks the observation against it. Predicates that pass become certified states, and the resulting trajectory carries the four objects language environments do not provide, namely a task-induced state space, an observation-to-state mapping, certified transitions, and a termination criterion. We evaluate SDP on five benchmarks spanning planning, scientific exploration, web reasoning, and multi-hop question answering. SDP achieves the best training-free results on all five, with the advantage widening as the horizon grows. The certified trajectories additionally support analyses unavailable to reactive agents, including per-predicate credit assignment, failure localization, partial-progress measurement, and modular operator replacement. --- ### Constraint-Aware Flow Matching: Decision Aligned End-to-End Training for Constrained Sampling Authors: Jacob K. Christopher, James E. Warner, Ferdinando Fioretto Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12754v1 Deep generative models provide state-of-the-art performance across a wide array of applications, with recent studies showing increasing applicability for science and engineering. Despite a growing corpus of literature focused on the integration of physics-based constraints into the generation process, existing approaches fail to enforce strict constraint satisfaction while maintaining sample quality. In particular, training-free constrained sampling methods, while providing per-sample feasibility guarantees, introduce a fundamental mismatch between the training objective and the constrained sampling procedure, often leading to performance degradation. Identifying this training-sampling misalignment as a central limitation of current constrained generative modeling approaches, this paper proposes Constraint-Aware Flow Matching, a novel end-to-end framework that explicitly incorporates constraint projections into the training objective. By aligning the model's learned dynamics with the constrained sampling process, the proposed method mitigates distributional shift induced by projection-based corrections, enabling high-quality constrained generation. The proposed approach is evaluated on three challenging real-world benchmarks, illustrating the generality and efficacy of the method. --- ### Optimization in Sparse 2D to Dense 3D Weakly Supervised Learning: Application to Multi-Label Segmentation of Large ex vivo MRI Data Authors: Paul Hoareau, Kuan Yi Wang, Brandon Bujak, Roy Sun, Govind Nair, Irene Cortese, Charidimos Tsagkas, Daniel Reich, Julien Cohen-Adad Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: eess.IV, cs.CV, cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12753v1 INTRODUCTION | Fully supervised 3D segmentation of high-resolution ex vivo MRI is limited by the prohibitive cost of volumetric annotation, forcing reliance on sparse 2D slices. Weakly supervised Sparse-to-Dense frameworks bridge this gap, but guidelines remain ambiguous regarding human-centric visual enhancements and transferring optimization strategies across dimensions. We analyze divergent regularization needs for multi-class segmentation of high-resolution ex vivo spinal cord MRI. METHODS | We used 9.4T MRI of multiple sclerosis spinal cords (>104,000 slices) with sparse annotations (428 slices). A 2D Teacher trained on sparse slices generated dense pseudo-labels to train a 3D Student. We systematically evaluated the impact of human-centric preprocessing, spatial augmentation, and soft-label regularization on both architectures. RESULTS | We identified a critical divergence in training dynamics. The 2D Teacher required strong spatial augmentation and soft-labeling to overcome data scarcity, improving White Matter Lesion Dice scores by >11 points. However, propagating these techniques to the 3D Student degraded its performance. Furthermore, human-centric preprocessing (e.g., CLAHE) disrupted global statistical cues, dropping Gray Matter Lesion Dice scores by ~25 points. DISCUSSION | Our study highlights a perception divergence (human-centric contrast enhancement harms machine models) and a regularization conflict across dimensions. 3D architectures trained on dense pseudo-labels exhibit fundamentally different optimization landscapes than 2D counterparts and require distinct, conservative regularization. Code and models: https://github.com/ivadomed/model_seg_sc-gm-lesion_human_ms_exvivo_t2star. --- ### Low-Rank Adapters Initialization via Gradient Surgery for Continual Learning Authors: Joana Pasquali, Ramiro N. Barros, Arthur S. Bianchessi, Vinícius Conte Turani, João Vitor Boer Abitante, Rafaela Cappelari Ravazio, Christian Mattjie, Otávio Parraga, Lucas S. Kupssinskü, Rodrigo C. Barros Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12752v1 LoRA is widely adopted for continual fine-tuning of Large Language Models due to its parameter efficiency, modularity across tasks, and compatibility with replay strategies. However, LoRA-based continual learning remains vulnerable to catastrophic forgetting, whose severity depends on how successive task gradients interact: when consecutive task gradients conflict, standard adapter initializations channel updates into subspaces that overwrite previously learned directions. We propose SLICE, a gradient-surgery-based initialization for LoRA adapters in continual learning. SLICE accumulates gradients from both the current task and a replay buffer of prior tasks, reconciles them through a projection operator, and decomposes the result via truncated SVD to initialize the adapter weights. We evaluate SLICE on the TRACE benchmark and sequences of Super-NI tasks, including a set of adversarial Super-NI sequences that we construct by mining task pairs with maximally opposing gradients. Compared to vanilla LoRA, LoRA-GA, and LoRAM, SLICE consistently achieves a better stability-plasticity trade-off, improving Average Performance, Final Performance and Forgetting metrics while preserving General Performance and In Context Performance across both standard and adversarial continual learning sequences. --- ### Simulating Students or Sycophantic Problem Solving? On Misconception Faithfulness of LLM Simulators Authors: Heejin Do, Shashank Sonkar, Mrinmaya Sachan Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.CL, cs.AI, cs.CY, cs.LG arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12748v1 Large language models (LLMs) can fluently generate student-like responses, making them attractive as simulated students for training and evaluating AI tutors and human educators. Yet such simulators are typically evaluated by output similarity to real students, not by whether they behave like students with coherent misconceptions during interaction. We introduce a controlled framework for evaluating misconception faithfulness, whether a simulator maintains a misconception-driven belief state and updates selectively when feedback addresses the underlying misconception. Central to our framework is a misconception-contrastive feedback protocol that compares targeted feedback against two controls: misaligned feedback (targeting a different but plausible misconception) and generic feedback (only identifying answer is wrong). We propose Selective Flip Score (SFS), which quantifies how much more often a simulator flips its answer under targeted feedback than under contrastive controls. Across seven LLMs (4B-120B), multiple datasets, and prompting strategies, simulators exhibit near-zero SFS, correcting their answers at similarly high rates regardless of feedback relevance. Further analyses reveal a sycophantic failure mode: models behave less like students with misconceptions but more like problem-solvers who treat any corrective signal as a cue to abandon the simulated belief and re-solve from internal knowledge. To address this, we develop a post-training pipeline spanning supervised fine-tuning (SFT), preference optimization, and reinforcement learning (RL) with an SFS-aligned reward; SFT yields notable gains up to +0.56, and SFS-aligned RL provides more consistent improvements than preference optimization. Our results establish misconception faithfulness as a challenging yet trainable property, motivating a shift from static output matching toward interactive, belief-aware student modeling. --- ### CoT-Guard: Small Models for Strong Monitoring Authors: Nirav Diwan, Han Wang, Berkcan Kapusuzoglu, Ramin Moradi, Supriyo Chakraborty, Giri Iyengar, Sambit Sahu, Huan Zhang, Gang Wang Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.CR, cs.AI arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12746v1 Monitoring the chain-of-thought (CoT) of reasoning models is a promising approach for detecting covert misbehavior (i.e., hidden objectives) in code generation tasks. While large models (GPT-5, Gemini-3-Flash) can serve as effective CoT monitors, they are expensive to deploy due to the lengthy reasoning traces and high API cost, emphasizing the need for smaller, cheaper alternatives. Nevertheless, we find that current small models (4B--8B) struggle to detect hidden objectives despite access to the CoT, frequently misattributing them as part of the user query. To address this, we propose a post-training pipeline combining supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL), where SFT narrows the gap for in-domain tasks by distilling detection behavior from stronger monitors, and RL on hard and subtly crafted hidden objectives helps the model generalize to out-of-domain monitoring tasks. To validate this generalization, we evaluate under a realistic threat model motivated by practical supply-chain attacks, where the adversary is a third-party LLM router injecting hidden objectives into code-generation requests through either prompt manipulation or code manipulation attacks. To push beyond objectives that large monitors already saturate, we also introduce four new challenging tasks even for strong monitors. Finally, we introduce CoT-Guard, a 4B-parameter monitor that demonstrates superior generalization performance under both prompt and code manipulation attacks, achieving a G-mean^2 (i.e., TNR x TPR) of 75% and outperforming GPT-5.4 (56%), GPT-5-mini (41%), and Qwen3-32B (54%), while closing the gap to Gemini-3-Flash (83%). These results demonstrate that CoT-Guard provides a practical and cost-effective user-side defense, substantially improving hidden-objective detection while avoiding the deployment cost of large monitors. --- ### What Do You Think I Think? Accounting for Human Beliefs Using Second-Order Theory of Mind Authors: Patrick Callaghan, Reid Simmons, Henny Admoni Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.HC, cs.AI arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12745v1 Discrepancies between an agent's actual knowledge and what a person thinks the agent knows can hinder interactions. If an agent could detect such discrepancies, it could provide feedback to account for them and improve current and future interactions. Using the I-POMDP as a framework for a second-order Theory of Mind (ToM-2), this work endows an agent with the ability to model the evolution of a person's erroneous beliefs about an agent and the cognitive biases and heuristics (CBH) from which they arise. In doing so, the agent can detect when CBH might be at play during an interaction and adaptively generate feedback that accounts for them. An in-person user study shows how a ToM-2 learner can account for the effects of a teacher's CBH to significantly improve the informativeness of teacher actions, and subjective results suggest people find the ToM-2 learner's feedback more useful. --- ### Still Camouflage, Moving Illusion: View-Induced Trajectory Manipulation in Autonomous Driving Authors: Shuo Ju, Qingzhao Zhang, Huashan Chen, Xuheng Wang, Haotang Li, Wanqian Zhang, Feng Liu, Kebin Peng, Sen He Published: 2026-05-12 Categories: cs.CR, cs.CV arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12743v1 Existing physical adversarial attacks on vision-based autonomous driving induce time-evolving perception errors, including biased object tracking or trajectory prediction, through (i) sophisticated physical patch inducing detection box drift when entering the view distance, or (ii) dynamically changing patches that cause different perception errors at different time. In both cases, viewing-angle variation is treated as a challenge, requiring adversarial patches to remain effective across frames under varying views, leading to complex multi-view optimization. In contrast, we show that viewing-angle variation itself can be turned into an attack tool. We design a new attack paradigm where a static, passive adversarial camouflage is mounted on a vehicle whose view-dependent appearance naturally evolves with relative motion, inducing consistent feature drift across frames. This causes the system to infer a physically plausible but incorrect trajectory, such as a false cut-in, which propagates to downstream decision-making and triggers unnecessary braking. Unlike prior approaches that require multi-view robustness or active intervention, our attack emerges from normal driving dynamics and is easy to deploy: a parked vehicle with a natural camouflage can induce hard braking in passing autonomous vehicles. We demonstrate the novel attack on nuScenes dataset, showing the effectiveness with an end-to-end success rate of up to 87.5%, measured by hard-braking events, and robustness across different scene backgrounds, victim vehicle speeds, and perception models. ---